The Digital Environment: Taking the Long View

4. As in good baking: Changes in the dominant media in a culture take time and the proper conditions.

• 30 year rule:
  • Communication technology innovations take approximately 30 years to become "everyday." When innovations "hit," although they were a long time in development, they appear "overnight."

    This is a corollary with McLuhan's notion about us seeing new media in the rear-view mirror.

• Ev Rogers' Diffusion Theory (about when technology will "take", not about how news spreads). In order for new technologies to diffuse, they have to meet a number of challenges:

• Relative advantages? Is the innovation really better?
• Compatible with current technology?
• Easy to use?
• Reliable?
• Observability/word of mouth? Especially from early adapters.
• Fidler adds:
• Bridges of familiarity (especially metaphors/icons).
• Motivating socio-economic-cultural opportunities.
  
• Suppression of radical potential. (we'll return to "control" in later concepts).

• Technological Complexity Paradox:

• Increasingly complex technologies are headed for users with decreasing levels of preparation for using technology.

"As Life Moves Online, an Older Generation Faces a Digital Divide"
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/technology/virus-older-generation-digital-divide.html

• Curve of Complexity:U-shaped complexity curve

• high at first; drops and evens out; then rises sharply with innovations
• The same technology that simplifies life by providing more functions in each device/process, also complicates life by making the device/process harder to learn and use.

Concept 4 Analysis article:

"How Did AT&T’s $100 Billion Time Warner Deal Go So Wrong?."
<https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/19/business/media/att-time-warner-deal.html>

Want to Learn more?

Pew Research: "Experts Say the ‘New Normal’ in 2025 Will Be Far More Tech-Driven, Presenting More Big Challenges." Full report: PI_2021.02.18_New-Normal-2025_FINAL.pdf in Files on Canvas.

Jonathan Taplin. Move Fast and Break Things: How Facebook, Google and Amazon Cornered Culture and Undermined Democracy. NY: Little, Brown and Company, 2017.

Nicolas Carr, The Glass Cage: Automation and Us, Norton: 2014.

Bauerlein, Mark. The Dumbest Generation: How the Digital Age Stupefies Young Americans and Jeopardizes Our Future(Or, Don 't Trust Anyone Under 30). NY: Penguin Books, 2008.

Regarding suppression of radical potential, The International Journal of Communication (IJoC) special feature section, "The Arab Spring & the Role of ICTs." (scroll down to FEATURES then scroll down to the bottom of that section and click the +more features tab). If you read these, remember that we learn even more about how totalitarian regimes use social media against protesters as time passes.